Election Almanac uses a uniform swing model for its projections based on the latest election poll results. For example, if a poll gives a party a 5% greater share of the vote than they received in the last election, the projector assumes the party’s vote has gone up by 5% in every seat. The same methodology applies for decreases. No projection model is 100% accurate. The projections below are for entertainment purposes only.
Since the last provincial election in 2008, there have been major changes in the Quebec political landscape. Most notably, the ADQ has merged into the upstart CAQ. As such, projecting the results of the next Quebec election based on the 2008 provincial election results using Election Almanac’s uniform swing model is very difficult. As a result, Election Almanac will post the seat projections of other media outlets and websites.