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Election Almanac
Canada Election 2011

Seat Projections

Election Almanac uses a "uniform swing" model for its projections based on the latest public opinion poll results. If a poll gives a party a 5% greater share of the vote than they received in the last election, the projector assumes the party's vote has gone up by 5% in every seat. The same methodology applies for decreases. Keep in mind that no projection model is 100% accurate. As such, the projections below are for entertainment purposes only. 155 required for majority.

Method #1 - Using the Regional Breakdowns of National Polls

 
Date BQ CON GRN LIB NDP
2011.05.01 15 133 0 45 115
2011.05.01 8 145 0 48 107
2011.05.01 11 160 0 28 109
2011.04.30 6 139 0 42 121
2011.04.30 11 136 0 62 99
2011.04.29 16 150 0 32 110
2011.04.29 29 181 0 13 85
2011.04.29 6 134 0 67 101
2011.04.29 8 144 0 31 125
2011.04.28 15 145 0 44 104
2011.04.28 6 133 0 61 108
2011.04.27 4 135 0 66 103
2011.04.27 14 143 0 54 97
2011.04.27 8 142 0 51 107
2011.04.26 21 132 0 61 94
2011.04.26 6 137 0 56 109
2011.04.26 14 158 0 45 91
2011.04.26 23 129 0 59 97
2011.04.25 12 128 0 65 103

Method #2 - Using the National Breakdown of National Polls

 
Date BQ CON GRN LIB NDP
2011.05.01 39 135 0 59 75
2011.05.01 32 150 0 51 75
2011.05.01 37 154 0 44 73
2011.04.30 32 143 0 55 78
2011.04.30 30 144 0 66 68
2011.04.29 45 156 0 33 74
2011.04.29 42 194 0 19 53
2011.04.29 26 151 0 67 64
2011.04.29 35 154 0 41 78
2011.04.28 40 143 0 53 72
2011.04.28 33 143 0 59 73
2011.04.27 25 143 0 68 72
2011.04.27 37 137 0 70 64
2011.04.27 35 145 0 61 67
2011.04.26 42 133 0 70 63
2011.04.26 37 133 0 65 73
2011.04.26 34 150 0 64 60
2011.04.26 42 136 0 64 66
2011.04.25 37 128 0 78 65
2011.04.24 38 130 0 76 64
2011.04.24 36 148 0 76 48
2011.04.23 39 143 0 78 48
2011.04.21 40 141 0 77 50
2011.04.20 31 181 0 47 49
2011.04.20 36 146 0 72 54
2011.04.20 39 144 0 81 44
2011.04.20 39 132 0 83 54
2011.04.19 39 139 0 90 40
2011.04.18 43 144 0 92 29
2011.04.17 48 147 0 66 47
2011.04.17 44 143 0 77 44
2011.04.17 43 132 0 91 42
2011.04.17 44 144 0 90 30
2011.04.17 44 141 0 77 46
2011.04.16 47 136 0 72 53
2011.04.16 46 138 0 87 37
2011.04.15 44 137 0 88 39
2011.04.14 39 136 0 94 39
2011.04.14 39 141 0 80 48
2011.04.14 45 137 0 88 38
2011.04.13 38 136 0 100 34
2011.04.12 45 126 0 95 42
2011.04.12 45 144 0 93 26
2011.04.11 43 178 0 60 27
2011.04.11 45 144 0 87 32
2011.04.11 39 144 0 99 26
2011.04.10 45 150 0 88 25
2011.04.10 39 148 0 97 24
2011.04.09 40 141 0 106 21
2011.04.08 45 146 0 94 13
2011.04.07 44 151 0 76 37
2011.04.07 45 140 0 88 35
2011.04.07 41 146 0 99 22
2011.04.06 44 143 0 78 43
2011.04.06 41 144 0 95 28
2011.04.05 39 146 0 94 29
2011.04.05 44 145 0 76 43
2011.04.05 39 146 0 94 29
2011.04.05 41 144 0 93 30
2011.04.04 41 145 0 96 26
2011.04.03 48 132 0 90 38
2011.04.03 39 156 0 86 27
2011.04.02 51 141 0 78 38
2011.04.02 39 148 0 93 28
2011.04.01 42 146 0 96 24
2011.03.31 45 141 0 86 36
2011.03.31 41 139 0 103 25
2011.03.30 41 137 0 106 24
2011.03.29 45 136 0 87 40
2011.03.28 45 133 0 87 43
2011.03.27 52 147 0 69 40
2011.03.27 52 160 0 59 37
2011.03.24 51 148 0 70 39
2011.03.24 50 157 0 61 40
2011.03.24 46 139 0 98 25
2011.03.23 52 170 0 57 29
2011.03.20 49 129 0 91 39
2011.03.15 49 137 0 83 39

Legend

▌ BQ Bloc Québécois
▌ CON Conservative Party
▌ GRN Green Party
▌ LIB Liberal Party
▌ NDP New Democratic Party
▌ CA Canadian Alliance
▌ SC Social Credit
▌ PRG Progressive Party
▌ AAE Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party
▌ CAP Canadian Action Party
▌ CHP Christian Heritage Party
▌ COM Communist Party
▌ FPN First Peoples National Party
▌ LBT Libertarian Party
▌ ML Marxist-Leninist Party
▌ MAR Marijuana Party
▌ NLP Newfoundland and Labrador First Party
▌ PPP People's Political Power of Canada
▌ PIR Pirate Party
▌ PC Progressive Canadian Party
▌ RHI Rhinoceros Party
▌ UNI United Party
▌ WB Western Block Party
▌ IND Independent
▌ OTH Other
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